Playing the final match of the La Liga season against the strongest side in Spain is never an easy task for any team. Still Valencia have a real chance to grab something positive because Barcelona have already wrapped up the title and will likely take things easy with many stars rested ahead of the World Cup break. The Catalan giants just finished their last home game at Camp Nou and even gave Robert Lewandowski a proper send off so the mood in the camp is more about celebration than grinding out results. This kind of relaxed atmosphere could open the door for Valencia who desperately need the points to climb into European spots.
Team Form
Valencia have had a real roller coaster campaign with plenty of ups and downs. At one point they were hovering close to the drop zone but a strong run has put them right in the hunt for seventh place. In their last outing they showed massive heart by coming from behind to beat Real Sociedad 4-3 away even while playing with ten men after the red card. Those two late goals after the 88th minute tell you everything about how much belief is running through the squad right now.
- Valencia need a win to move within touching distance of European qualification
- Barcelona have nothing left to fight for after clinching the title weeks ago
- Key Barcelona players including Lewandowski are likely to be rested or rotated
Tactical Analysis
On paper Barcelona dominate in almost every department with better squad depth and individual quality. However the visitors are clearly in holiday mode and will not risk injuries to their big names just days before the break. Valencia on the other hand will throw everything at their opponents knowing that only three points will do. The home side possess plenty of pace on the counter and can exploit any gaps left by a Barcelona side that may not press with full intensity.
- Valencia strengths include high motivation and recent late goal scoring form
- Barcelona weaknesses center on lack of urgency and possible rotation of starters
- Home advantage at Mestalla could prove decisive in a must win fixture
Overall the conditions look favorable for the hosts to avoid defeat even if they are the underdogs in terms of pure quality.
Betting Proposal
Given all the factors the smart play is to back Valencia not to lose at home. With Barcelona already on vacation mode and the hosts fighting for that seventh spot the value sits with a home win or draw. Back Valencia to win or draw at odds of 1.95 this one has strong appeal for punters looking for a solid return on a tricky final day fixture.
